Challenges for Australia & Emerging Asian-Australian Leaders

Keynote Presentation to Asia Australia Emerging Leaders Summit, Macquarie University, 14 July 2026

These are turbulent and challenging times. For the whole world, as it comes to terms with breakdown in much of the order that has contributed so much to peace and prosperity since the end of World War II. For Australian foreign, defence and trade policy, as we come to terms with new power realities globally and in our own region. For Australia’s immigrant community, as it comes to terms with growing anti-immigrant sentiment, and the emergence of ugly far-right populism as, for the first time in our history, a serious political force. And for Asian-Australians in particular, and young professionals like yourselves within that community, as you come to terms with the reality that, although we had hoped by now it would be less visible and tangible, there is still a bamboo ceiling out there.

Global Disorder. The present international order, globally and to some extent in our own region, is certainly as bleak as any of us can remember. In the first two decades after the end of the Cold War not everything went right (not least horrific atrocity crimes in Rwanda and the Balkans in the ‘90s, and America’s catastrophic invasion of Iraq in 2003). But a spirit of cooperation and a real sense of optimism did then prevail, and the last decade or more has been a far cry from that.

In recent years we have seen, unhappily a major erosion of respect, especially by the biggest powers, Russia, China and the US, for international law, and multilateral institutions and processes – with the waging of aggressive war in Ukraine and Iran; militarisation of the South China Sea; paralysis in the Security Council; lack of support for UNHCR, WFP, WHO and the collapse of development assistance funding generally; and the US retreat from the WTO and embrace of trade coercion; a failure of effective response to mass atrocity crimes; assaults on ICC; and weakness in regional organisation responses to human security crises in Africa, and South East Asia with Myanmar; and a weakness in collective response to the great existential risks of climate change, pandemics, and nuclear holocaust (with crucial nuclear arms control agreements of the past dead or on life support); and the possible new existential risk now posed by AI.

I’m beginning to have a little more confidence that the present, and future, generation of leaders and potential leaders are beginning to learn some necessary lessons: that military might does not necessarily guarantee victory or dominance, or one’s own security; that nuclear weapons not the assets they are so often assumed to be, proving simply not useable for either deterrence or compellence; and that trade coercion is a double-edged sword from which there can emerge no winners. I do think, too, that it is beginning to dawn on the US administration that trying to preserve US primacy in the Asia-Pacific is a lost cause, and that a far more intelligent and rational approach than confrontation to dealing with the rise of China is pursuit of détente, with the Xi-Trump summit language of ‘strategic stability’ being a possibly significant step forward in this respect. But the jury is very much still out on whether the world really is beginning to restabilise, or whether these are just straws in the wind.

Australia’s Response. The biggest international challenge for Australia in the present environment, as for many others in our region, is to keep our balance while navigating between the two giants – by far our biggest economic partner, China, and our traditional security guarantor, the United States. There are four principles which I have long believed should govern our national interest response: less America, more self-reliance, more Asia, and more global engagement. With President Trump now back in the White House — more ill-informed, prejudiced, self-absorbed and dangerous than ever — I believe it is now time to double down on all four.

Less America. I don’t advocate walking away from the ANZUS alliance, which has delivered us in the past, and hopefully will continue to, important technical, logistic and intelligence support. But whatever the psychological comfort it might also have offered us in days gone by, the reality is that the alliance has never bound the US to defend us, even in the event of existential attack. Washington will, no doubt, shake a deterrent fist, and threaten and deliver retaliation, if its own assets on Australian soil are threatened or attacked, but that is as far as our expectations should extend. And as to the AUKUS submarine project, the crazy irony is that we are spending an eye-watering amount to build new capability to meet military threats which are most likely to arise simply because we have that capability, and are using it to support the United States in some war of its choosing, not ours, and not in our own interests to engage.

More Self-Reliance. I am among those who believe that the ‘Red Alert’ China threat to our security has been wildly overstated. With Beijing closer to London than Sydney, outright invasion — as distinct from grey-zone operations, blockade attempts and hit and run attacks on particular facilities — is almost inconceivable. But I totally accept that defence planning always has to be based on worst case assumptions, taking into account potential adversaries’ capabilities, not just known or likely intent. And in that context we are going to have to get used to doing more, spending significantly more, and prioritising that expenditure more wisely. We should focus on building what has been described as an ‘echidna’ strategy, ‘spiky but unthreatening’: making our adjacent seas and skies unsafe to the point of impenetrability for any opposing force, through a combination of air, underwater, missile and cyber detection and destruction capabilities, with significant reliance on autonomous delivery systems.

More Asia. This means to me three main things. First, strengthening regional trade and economic relationships, and the capacity to push back collectively against Trump’s trade warfare. Second, strengthening political and, where possible, military relationships with key regional neighbours like India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea, on both a bilateral and minilateral basis: partly to concentrate China’s mind on the reality that overreach will not be without pushback, but also to maximise collective regional diplomatic pressure on both China and the US to reach mutually accommodating détente. And third, trying to develop with China itself not just a one-dimensional economic relationship, but a more multidimensional one – actively exploring the scope for cooperation in addressing a whole range of global and regional public goods issues: from climate change to nuclear arms control, terrorism to health pandemics, peace-keeping to responding to mass atrocity crimes, and defending free trade.

More Global Engagement. With Trump taking a wrecking ball to critical multilateral institutions like the WHO, WTO, ICC and, increasingly, the UN itself, it has never been more important for countries who can make a difference — and Australia is one of them — to rally in their support. Our value-add here is essentially middle power diplomacy, the crucial tool of which is international coalition building in support of global and regional public goods. Australia has been at its best, and our standing in the world highest, when we play to our national strengths as a capable, credible middle power working with others of similar stature (not just familiar suspects like Canada and the Nordics, but key players in our own region like Indonesia); and when we work through the UN and other international institutions.

And we do ourselves most good, as well, when we project ourselves effectively on to the international stage as a ‘good international citizen’. I have long argued that behaving decently is not just a moral imperative. It produces hard-headed national interest returns of the kind which should satisfy the most sceptical realist: above all, the kind of reputational return that makes a country one that others admire, trust, want to visit, study in, invest in and support in a crisis – what most of the world, if not Donald Trump, still understands as ‘soft power’.

Protecting Multiculturalism. Behaving decently is of course not just an international obligation but a domestic one: countries who don’t practise at home what they preach abroad don’t have much credibility. What is particularly troubling to me, and I’m sure to everyone in this audience, about the recent surge of anti-immigrant sentiment and the extraordinary increase in political support for Hanson’s One Nation party, is that not only is it profoundly discomforting for those here experiencing or fearing racial or religious hostility, but it also puts at profound risk our hitherto well-deserved reputation as one of the world’s greatest multicultural success stories.

With more than half our population now born overseas, or with at least one overseas-born parent – and with both our Chinese-Australian and Indian-Australian communities now each over a million strong – we have long since lost any claim to being an Anglo-Celtic monoculture. The reality is that contemporary Australia is a marvellously rich blend of three distinct cultural traditions: our Indigenous heritage, our British heritage, and our multicultural embrace of migrants from Asia and all around the globe. The only legitimate response to the disgusting racism and religious intolerance of One Nation (as well as its economic ignorance and capture by mega-rich financial interests) is to call it out, oppose it absolutely, and give it zero political oxygen, as Liberal leader Angus Taylor is belatedly beginning to realise, and the latest opinion polls are beginning to confirm.

I have always believed that Australians generally are overwhelmingly characterised by an inherent decency, humanity and tolerance which is not in the slightest racist or inherently hostile to those whose background is not Anglo-European. Yes, it is the case that, periodically, economic anxiety or security anxiety can translate in some quarters into cultural anxiety which can in turn result in some negativity towards those perceived to be outside the national mainstream. But the overwhelming majority of Australians do understand the richness – culturally, economically and in every other way – that cultural diversity has brought to Australia. They know that multiculturalism has given us not just a new outlook on the world, but new resources and capacity – a whole new human skill-base – with which to deal with it. And I am sure that view will, when it matters most, politically prevail.

Breaking the Bamboo Ceiling. But, even accepting all that, the news is not as good as it could and should be for young Asian-Australian professionals like yourselves who aspire to leadership positions in business, the professions and public sector. The reality is that there is still a bamboo ceiling out there which is proving harder than it should be to break. Asian-Australians now constitute over 17 per cent of the population, but occupy, across all these sectors, a much smaller percentage than that of senior leadership positions. A recent report by the Australian Institute of Company Directors revealed that there are now in fact fewer directors with Chinese or Indian backgrounds sitting on ASX200 boards than there were eight years ago – 8.1 per cent now, as compared with 9.5 per cent in 2017.

Part of the answer to the problem of underutilisation of the huge store of linguistic and other skills we have in our midst in our Asian-Australian community lies on the demand side – persuading business, professional and public sector leaders that they stand to benefit as much from cultural diversity as they now clearly understand they do from gender diversity, and to gather the data and implement the target setting, training and other strategies necessary to make that happen.

But another important part of the answer is on the supply side. Which means young Asian-Australian professionals equipping yourselves with, and demonstrating that you have, all the skills and qualities you need, both technical and personal, to become leaders in very competitive environments. One aspect of this I know will be quite tough for some of you: overcoming the cultural inhibition you may feel about asserting yourself to the extent that might seem to be the prevailing Anglo-Celtic norm. If your background is a culture where ‘the loudest duck gets shot’, it can be quite discomforting to have to push yourself forward in one where it seems that ‘the squeakiest wheel gets the grease’. But I guess you just have to try.

The future is not going to be determined by old greybeards like me. It’s going to be made by you, the young professionals. So please don't be hesitant and nervous but confident and optimistic that you can make a difference – at the micro-level in your own workplaces; through the energy and advocacy skills you can contribute to your community organizations; and in the voice you can have in the larger policy making process by speaking out and capturing the attention of policymakers and decision-makers.

For the future of Australia there is simply no more relevant and important a contributor to our human skill-base than our growing Asian-Australian community. Thank you for everything you have contributed in the past, and thank you for the wonderful contribution I am totally confident you are going to make to this very multicultural country of ours in the future.